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The realistic scenario for rlease of DNF - Release Christmas 2010

User is offline   BugsBunny 

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#1

So I was thinking what was the realistice scenario of releasing DNF. Is it going to be released at all, and if so when. I came up with this.

1. On 8th May 2009, the DNF team at 3DR was laid off due to lack of funds to continue development. Please keep this in mind, in hind sight, we now know DNF was supposed to go Gold on 1st April, 2010 had development been continued. This means the team got laid off with eleven and a half months work remaining. I think it would be safe to assume that this 11 and half months work would have consisted of finishing off levels which were not complete and doing rigurous QA leading to the final delivery of Gold code on 1st of April 2010.

2. On Nov 26, 2009, Scott Miller wrote on Facebook "Duke Nukem doesn't stay down for long." This was quickly followed by a "D-Day" preview pic on Nov 28, 2009. Now lets try to figure out the meanin of "D-Day". According to Wikipedia, "D-Day is a term often used in military parlance to denote the day on which a combat attack or operation is to be initiated." Wiki also suggests this day may be a variable day, but a significant day on which a significant even will occur or have occurred. Reading this meaning of D-Day with "Duke Nukem doesn't stay down for long." leads me to the conclusion, that something related to DNF has happened on or about Nov 26, 2009, and hence the D-Day pic on the 28th of Nov. With the DNF team already laid off on 8th May, I can only conclude that on or about this time, a 3rd party developer has been assigned the job of DNF.

3. Confident that DNF will be in finished state before the Take 2 court case comes up, and hence Take 2's case will be blown away, Scot then posted on 2nd Dec in Facebook "These guys don't stand a chance" and "Heh heh, who am I talking about? You got two guesses. ". Clearly Scott was Scott was super confident to blow Take 2 away after the events in Nov 26, 2009.

4. On December 7th, Scott couldn't hold it any longer and blurted out "Duke Nukem says it's gonna happen, and when it does, shock and awesome. " See a pattern evolving. Something significant happened on 26th of Nov, hence the D-Day pic on 28th of Nov, the confidence that Take 2 doesn't stand a chance on Dec 2 and finally the above on 7th Dec, 2009.

5. On Jan 7th, 2010, Scott writes "The Voice of Duke Nukem Facetiously Confirms Duke Nukem Forever ". Now this is Scott who is posting this, not us blind Duke supporters. My conclusion, Scott just indirectly confirmed DNF. And we all know what the Voice of Duke said on that day. So definitely DNF was in development in that time, and John St John knows it. And he is not allowed to say about it because he is under an NDA. So he says to "read between the lines".

6. On May 18th, 2010, Scott posted "ripped off its head, and read the newspaper." And now we know this refers to the settlement of the case between Take 2 and 3DR regarding DNF. Now what does "ripped off it's head mean". Definitely means that 3DR has basically ripped T2's head off. How that is the question. The answer lies in T2 removing all DNF related material from it's website. My conclusion, whatever the deals of arrangement is between T2 and 3DR, T2 has lost the publishing rights. They are no more associated with DNF. Their publishing right have been ripped off. Hence "ripped off it's head".

7. Finally now that the court case is over and Take 2 ripped off it's publishing rights, when can we expect DNF. Remember point 1 above. When the DNF team was laid off on 8th May 2009, about 11 and a half months work was left on DNF to go gold on April 1, 2010. So if the development re-started on 26th of Nov, 2009, it would be safe to assume that DNF will be in Gold status or very near Gold status somewhere around December, 2010.

8. And then recently, on June 6th 2010, in a Facebook reply to "Partha Nandi" when "Partha Nandi"said "Get over it man, DNF is over now :) !" Scott said "Partha, do you know something I don't?". Surely this means 3DR intends to release DNF and were on schedule with the release of DNF .

So my conclusion is with a 3rd party developer taking over development of DNF on 26th of November and adding about a years left work on it, we should see DNF this Christmas, 2010, probably under a new publisher as Take 2's publishing rights have been "ripped off".
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User is offline   Kristian Joensen 

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#2

"So my conclusion is with a 3rd party developer taking over development of DNF on 26th of November and adding about a years left work on it, we should see DNF this Christmas, 2010, probably under a new publisher as Take 2's publishing rights have been "ripped off"."

Even granting everything you say up until this point your conclusion doesn't follow since you can't just add that year to the November 26th date since any new developer would need a chunk time to get familiar with the engine and codebase. Perhaps even 6 months.

Also did Take Two really remove DNF from their website or was it the case that it wasn't there in the first place?(or perhaps was removed already back in May 2009).

Frightfan: Should we wait until GT is persuaded to release the entire Blood source code?

Matt Saettler: Don't know about the Blood source from lith. I doubt they'll release it.

Frightfan: [Jason Hall] already said he would if it were up to him, but it isn't - it's GTI's game now.

Matt Saettler: Jace is wrong. I'm the one that negotiated the contracts. Jace probably doesn't even know what's really in them....
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User is offline   nicenator 

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#3

View PostKristian Joensen, on Jun 15 2010, 05:53 PM, said:

Also did Take Two really remove DNF from their website or was it the case that it wasn't there in the first place?(or perhaps was removed already back in May 2009).


Yes It was on there website until recently. I remember seeing it around July or so last year.
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User is offline   blackharted 

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#4

View PostBugsBunny, on Jun 15 2010, 04:28 PM, said:

So I was thinking what was the realistice scenario of releasing DNF. Is it going to be released at all, and if so when. I came up with this.

1. On 8th May 2009, the DNF team at 3DR was laid off due to lack of funds to continue development. Please keep this in mind, in hind sight, we now know DNF was supposed to go Gold on 1st April, 2010 had development been continued. This means the team got laid off with eleven and a half months work remaining. I think it would be safe to assume that this 11 and half months work would have consisted of finishing off levels which were not complete and doing rigurous QA leading to the final delivery of Gold code on 1st of April 2010.

2. On Nov 26, 2009, Scott Miller wrote on Facebook "Duke Nukem doesn't stay down for long." This was quickly followed by a "D-Day" preview pic on Nov 28, 2009. Now lets try to figure out the meanin of "D-Day". According to Wikipedia, "D-Day is a term often used in military parlance to denote the day on which a combat attack or operation is to be initiated." Wiki also suggests this day may be a variable day, but a significant day on which a significant even will occur or have occurred. Reading this meaning of D-Day with "Duke Nukem doesn't stay down for long." leads me to the conclusion, that something related to DNF has happened on or about Nov 26, 2009, and hence the D-Day pic on the 28th of Nov. With the DNF team already laid off on 8th May, I can only conclude that on or about this time, a 3rd party developer has been assigned the job of DNF.

3. Confident that DNF will be in finished state before the Take 2 court case comes up, and hence Take 2's case will be blown away, Scot then posted on 2nd Dec in Facebook "These guys don't stand a chance" and "Heh heh, who am I talking about? You got two guesses. ". Clearly Scott was Scott was super confident to blow Take 2 away after the events in Nov 26, 2009.

4. On December 7th, Scott couldn't hold it any longer and blurted out "Duke Nukem says it's gonna happen, and when it does, shock and awesome. " See a pattern evolving. Something significant happened on 26th of Nov, hence the D-Day pic on 28th of Nov, the confidence that Take 2 doesn't stand a chance on Dec 2 and finally the above on 7th Dec, 2009.

5. On Jan 7th, 2010, Scott writes "The Voice of Duke Nukem Facetiously Confirms Duke Nukem Forever ". Now this is Scott who is posting this, not us blind Duke supporters. My conclusion, Scott just indirectly confirmed DNF. And we all know what the Voice of Duke said on that day. So definitely DNF was in development in that time, and John St John knows it. And he is not allowed to say about it because he is under an NDA. So he says to "read between the lines".

6. On May 18th, 2010, Scott posted "ripped off its head, and read the newspaper." And now we know this refers to the settlement of the case between Take 2 and 3DR regarding DNF. Now what does "ripped off it's head mean". Definitely means that 3DR has basically ripped T2's head off. How that is the question. The answer lies in T2 removing all DNF related material from it's website. My conclusion, whatever the deals of arrangement is between T2 and 3DR, T2 has lost the publishing rights. They are no more associated with DNF. Their publishing right have been ripped off. Hence "ripped off it's head".

7. Finally now that the court case is over and Take 2 ripped off it's publishing rights, when can we expect DNF. Remember point 1 above. When the DNF team was laid off on 8th May 2009, about 11 and a half months work was left on DNF to go gold on April 1, 2010. So if the development re-started on 26th of Nov, 2009, it would be safe to assume that DNF will be in Gold status or very near Gold status somewhere around December, 2010.

8. And then recently, on June 6th 2010, in a Facebook reply to "Partha Nandi" when "Partha Nandi"said "Get over it man, DNF is over now :) !" Scott said "Partha, do you know something I don't?". Surely this means 3DR intends to release DNF and were on schedule with the release of DNF .

So my conclusion is with a 3rd party developer taking over development of DNF on 26th of November and adding about a years left work on it, we should see DNF this Christmas, 2010, probably under a new publisher as Take 2's publishing rights have been "ripped off".

Very clever. But it won't be true, it never is.

I don't want your blackhart I've countless billions of those.

The hardest part of ending is starting again!

Trolling's awesome.
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User is offline   NUKEMDAVE 

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#5

View Postnicenator, on Jun 15 2010, 11:34 PM, said:

Yes It was on there website until recently. I remember seeing it around July or so last year.


It was on there even more recent than that. The last time I saw it was right before they changed the site and that wasn't that long ago.
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User is offline   BugsBunny 

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#6

View PostKristian Joensen, on Jun 15 2010, 04:53 PM, said:

"So my conclusion is with a 3rd party developer taking over development of DNF on 26th of November and adding about a years left work on it, we should see DNF this Christmas, 2010, probably under a new publisher as Take 2's publishing rights have been "ripped off"."

Even granting everything you say up until this point your conclusion doesn't follow since you can't just add that year to the November 26th date since any new developer would need a chunk time to get familiar with the engine and codebase. Perhaps even 6 months.

Also did Take Two really remove DNF from their website or was it the case that it wasn't there in the first place?(or perhaps was removed already back in May 2009).


I never thought that it will take additional 6 months. If that is the case, April 1st 2011 will be a probability then. However some interesting observations may be made in this regard.

1. Think about the documents that were leaked around May 2009, if I correctly remember, there as an excel sheet with level completion percentage, and in that sheet most of the levels were almost finished and only one level had 0 %age completion. The interesting point is even though this excel sheet was released on May 2009, it was dated about a year back. So by May 2009, the game was almost near completion I can safely assume. So in all probability, the major part of work left to do on the 11 months period is most probably QA, more so George being a perfectionist, with final touch ups and tweaks here and there.

2. Also another important point in such a case is who is then financing 3DR ? They ran out of cash to pay for 11 and half months of unfinished work, but now have the cash to tackle additional 6 months production cost. Add to that they most probably have to pay Take 2 to rip them off their publishing contract, and the lawyer fees, where did all that cash suddenly come from ? Is it the money they got from selling off the Prey IP to Zenimax ?

And although I cant remember when I last saw DNF on T2's website, I can safely say I did see the DNF page at least 2 about months after May 2009. Because I remember seeing that page in a big screen monitor in my new PC, and it is only in late July did I buy myself a new 27" screen with a new PC.

This post has been edited by BugsBunny: 16 June 2010 - 01:39 AM

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User is offline   Jobi-Wan Kenobi 

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#7

last time I checked DNF on Take 2's website was about 1 month ago and it was there. I think they redisgned their website in end of May.
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User is offline   kingnothing 

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#8

it needs more time than 6 month to revue every thing
they have to revue the engine the code
they need to compile everything n c where r the errors
they need to continue what is left
they might even change the entire code and language
since we are taking about a project that started 13 years ago they might have used old language
this considering that the team was organized and made for each function separate code(i mean easy to find)
studying the code after some one is not easy and takes a lot of time

lets give an example if you took an unfinished project (lets say a script since it is usually smaller than games) from another coder it takes atleast 2 weeks to read it and understand it and that if the person was organized then you have to see where he stopped so you can continue

you cannot place a time limit unless they hired the Duke Nukem team to finish the project
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User is offline   blackharted 

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#9

View Postkingnothing, on Jun 16 2010, 05:58 AM, said:

it needs more time than 6 month to revue every thing
they have to revue the engine the code
they need to compile everything n c where r the errors
they need to continue what is left
they might even change the entire code and language
since we are taking about a project that started 13 years ago they might have used old language
this considering that the team was organized and made for each function separate code(i mean easy to find)
studying the code after some one is not easy and takes a lot of time

lets give an example if you took an unfinished project (lets say a script since it is usually smaller than games) from another coder it takes atleast 2 weeks to read it and understand it and that if the person was organized then you have to see where he stopped so you can continue

you cannot place a time limit unless they hired the Duke Nukem team to finish the project

That may not be all true

I don't want your blackhart I've countless billions of those.

The hardest part of ending is starting again!

Trolling's awesome.
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User is offline   Hendricks266 

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  #10

View PostBugsBunny, on Jun 15 2010, 07:28 PM, said:

6. On May 18th, 2010, Scott posted "ripped off its head, and read the newspaper." And now we know this refers to the settlement of the case between Take 2 and 3DR regarding DNF. Now what does "ripped off it's head mean".

This refers to the ending cinematic of episode 2 from Duke 3D, when Duke rips the Overlord's head off and shits down its neck, while reading the newspaper.
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User is online   Zor 

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#11

In this case he is using it to refer to the lawsuit. :)
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User is offline   kingnothing 

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#12

View Postblackharted, on Jun 16 2010, 06:42 AM, said:

That may not be all true

I know that
I'm giving worst case scenario, the only way to know what when or if the project ganna be continued, is to hear if or read it
other than that we don't know anything
the recent news about who took the copy right of publishing the game could take years because of:
1) the lawsuit
2)a strict release date
3)the contract between the two companies
4)the law gabs and percentage

that if there is a new 3rd party developer or take 2 lost publishing rights

then here come the scenario i wrote above

so yeah it needs a hell lot of time
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User is offline   Yatta 

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  #13

Hey BugsBunny, your logic is pretty sound though I would concede that some of your interpretation is almost wishful in nature (as it should be for all us fans). I do think it's logical for them to have handed the game to an external developer.

3DR should have announced something by now. GB/Scott kept refusing to comment because the case was still pending, but they promised to clear everything up once it was all over. News of the settlement hasn't changed GB's attitude though, judging by his "no comment, sorry" statement a few days ago when the news of the settlement broke out.

I'm sure they're doing something but it's incredibly lame of GB to be so secretive, although I understand his view granted he doesn't want to take the risk of breaking his promises as he has with every release promise in the early 2000s

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User is offline   blackharted 

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#14

View PostYatta, on Jun 17 2010, 09:53 AM, said:

Hey BugsBunny, your logic is pretty sound though I would concede that some of your interpretation is almost wishful in nature (as it should be for all us fans). I do think it's logical for them to have handed the game to an external developer.

3DR should have announced something by now. GB/Scott kept refusing to comment because the case was still pending, but they promised to clear everything up once it was all over. News of the settlement hasn't changed GB's attitude though, judging by his "no comment, sorry" statement a few days ago when the news of the settlement broke out.

I'm sure they're doing something but it's incredibly lame of GB to be so secretive, although I understand his view granted he doesn't want to take the risk of breaking his promises as he has with every release promise in the early 2000s

Yeah Yatta that's right, if the lawsuit really is over than there is no reason for GB to be so tight-lipped and secretive, because there is no excuse now, right?
HOWEVER something has been on my mind ever since GB explained why he wouldn't talk about DNF, in a post on 3DR he said "why aren't we talking about it? Because we can't/WON'T" now typically I can't find this anymore but the "won't" impilies that even after the case is over 3DR would go back to the secretive no-spoilers attitude they are know for. I mean why would they tell us anything now? They never did before, when the game was being made actively so unfortunalty nothing seems to have changed.

I don't want your blackhart I've countless billions of those.

The hardest part of ending is starting again!

Trolling's awesome.
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User is offline   Psyrgery 

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#15

View PostYatta, on Jun 17 2010, 06:53 PM, said:

Hey BugsBunny, your logic is pretty sound though I would concede that some of your interpretation is almost wishful in nature (as it should be for all us fans). I do think it's logical for them to have handed the game to an external developer.

3DR should have announced something by now. GB/Scott kept refusing to comment because the case was still pending, but they promised to clear everything up once it was all over. News of the settlement hasn't changed GB's attitude though, judging by his "no comment, sorry" statement a few days ago when the news of the settlement broke out.

I'm sure they're doing something but it's incredibly lame of GB to be so secretive, although I understand his view granted he doesn't want to take the risk of breaking his promises as he has with every release promise in the early 2000s

It'z for dah shock an awesome, period.
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User is offline   BugsBunny 

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#16

There is no announcement from 3DR because :

1. There is nothing new to announce, it has already been confirmed officially that the case has been settled.
2. DNF is not complete yet, whats there to announce then ?
3. 3DR doesn't want to announce anything relating to DNF in case they miss their mark, and get laughed at again.
4. As Psyrgery noted above, for shock and awesome factor.
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User is offline   kaisersoze 

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#17

I'd really just like to know what the hell is going on. I mean even the settlement has to be a big secret? Should have expected this
from 3drealms though.

Bunny-you're probably hitting pretty close to how this all went down.

I think 3dr somehow managed to wrestle DNF and any future Duke games(Duke Begins) away from Take 2 completely.

There's still a window to get the game done without it looking terribly dated. I personally think the game looks fine based on the
leaked alpha? videos.

"It's gonna happen" and when it does "Shock and awe". What would that be George or Scott? Would that be going into total blackout mode
and then announcing the game gone gold later this year?

This is madness!

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User is online   Zor 

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#18

I know there is someone who can't wait to see the fans' reactions when the details of the settlement are finally announced. :)
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User is offline   blackharted 

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#19

View Postkaisersoze, on Jun 18 2010, 10:18 PM, said:

I'd really just like to know what the hell is going on. I mean even the settlement has to be a big secret? Should have expected this
from 3drealms though.

Bunny-you're probably hitting pretty close to how this all went down.

I think 3dr somehow managed to wrestle DNF and any future Duke games(Duke Begins) away from Take 2 completely.

There's still a window to get the game done without it looking terribly dated. I personally think the game looks fine based on the
leaked alpha? videos.

"It's gonna happen" and when it does "Shock and awe". What would that be George or Scott? Would that be going into total blackout mode
and then announcing the game gone gold later this year?

This is madness!

Posted Image

See post 14

I don't want your blackhart I've countless billions of those.

The hardest part of ending is starting again!

Trolling's awesome.
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User is online   Tea Monster 

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#20

Honestly, this isn't half as F*cked up as some of the stuff that gets posted in this section of the forums.

"Madness is the Loud voice at the top of the post list that says 'DNF goes gold this weekend, shock and awe!'"

This post has been edited by Tea Monster: 20 June 2010 - 09:05 AM

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User is offline   BugsBunny 

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#21

Perhaps I have hit the nail on the head ? Scot Miller is saying " ...Good news ahead this year". Note the context of discussion is Evan Quinn congratulating Scott on settling the "court case", and we all know that the court case was regarding one particular game "DNF" :) before Scott comes up with the above reply !

Posted Image

Oh I sure hope if my theories come true and DNF gets released this year end Christmas time, the members from this forum buy me a copy of DNF "Babe" Edition, the edition that comes with real life babes as bonus :) :D !

This post has been edited by BugsBunny: 21 June 2010 - 02:33 AM

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User is offline   crunchysuperman 

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#22

Anybody remember this GB post in the Prey demo thread from four years ago?

Quote

Soon....very soon.

And very soon...on *other* good news.


http://forums.3drealms.com/vb/showpost.php...mp;postcount=11

I don't think we ever did figure out exactly what he was talking about, although he must have known what everybody would be thinking. They love this "soon" bullshit, don't they? Kinda like a tv show constantly giving you "coming up after the break" over and over again until finally it turns out to be just a few seconds of useless nonsense tacked on at the very end of the show. The whole point being just to try & hold your attention as long as possible before you finally come to find out that what you were expecting isn't remotely close to reality.
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User is offline   hornoxe 

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#23

This release date, that they supposedly had, getting thrown around is rather comical. Even if it were true that it was a date they had internally set, we're talking about DNF/3DR here, what on earth makes anyone think they would have actually been successful in meeting that deadline. Their legendary planning ability? Deadlines getting pushed forward isn't uncommon in developement in geneal, add in the DNF factor and that date is as useless as it can get :)
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User is offline   Striker 

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#24

It's about time that we had a theory thread in which the original poster used his fucking brain, and put one and one together in a more down-to-earth and logical fashion. I'm not saying it's all true, but it seems reasonable, and most of all, logical.

It seems to me most of the people here have gone absolutely screwball. Nobody's using common sense anymore, aren't thinking before posting line after line of shit, laced with pent up anger and spite... or psychotic fanboyism on the flip side of the card. People come up with the most illogical theories, come up with the most ridiculous arguments, and lash out at each other like angsty teenagers in a schoolyard brawl.

I'd just really wish everyone would cool down, sit back, leave all the bullshit and the jokes behind, and just pay attention, listen, think things over, and discuss in a reserved fashion, while just being happy with what you got for info thus far. What happened to these forums just being a bunch of Duke fans with a common interest, anticipating the upcoming game? Nooooooo but instead we must run in constant fucking circles fighting one another over and over and over and over and over a-fucking-gain!

Why doesn't someone form a little multiplayer community or something where folks in the community can hit people up in XBLA Duke, or maybe an EDuke32 with master server, server browser, and in-game joining? (I think I heard somewhere such a thing being worked on.) I know there is Dukester and YANG, but they are always empty every time I look, and nothing seems to be organized.

Does Duke4.net have an official IRC Channel? Maybe that would be nice, discussing duke there in realtime instead of on the forums all the time, and allowing for arranging games and whatnot.

*sigh*, anyhow, OP was a good read. Maybe I should make my own thread with all my thoughts if anyone would be interested.


This post has been edited by StrikerMan780: 22 June 2010 - 03:01 PM

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User is offline   Mikko 

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#25

View PostYatta, on Jun 17 2010, 07:53 PM, said:

I'm sure they're doing something but it's incredibly lame of GB to be so secretive, although I understand his view granted he doesn't want to take the risk of breaking his promises as he has with every release promise in the early 2000s


I fail to see the downside of keeping us in the dark. A few hc fans might be pissed but so what? As you implied, every "how soon" hint (whether a statement or a trailer/teaser release) has turned out wrong - big time. The sad bunch of people who have been waiting for this game since -96 have no trouble waiting a few additional years anyway so why bother appeasing them?

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User is offline   Psyrgery 

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#26

View Postcrunchysuperman, on Jun 21 2010, 01:16 PM, said:

Anybody remember this GB post in the Prey demo thread from four years ago?



http://forums.3drealms.com/vb/showpost.php...mp;postcount=11

I don't think we ever did figure out exactly what he was talking about, although he must have known what everybody would be thinking. They love this "soon" bullshit, don't they? Kinda like a tv show constantly giving you "coming up after the break" over and over again until finally it turns out to be just a few seconds of useless nonsense tacked on at the very end of the show. The whole point being just to try & hold your attention as long as possible before you finally come to find out that what you were expecting isn't remotely close to reality.


Stay tuned!
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User is offline   Kathy 

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#27

View PostPsyrgery, on Jun 22 2010, 07:56 PM, said:

Stay tuned!


No! Why did you have to remind me about this? :)

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User is offline   Honza 

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#28

If there is one happy day when DNF sees light of the day. I DO WANT documentation, whole story about all of this, I wanna play all those layed off betas based on Q2 and Unreal engine. I do want to know what was going on over the years and it's best if possible with commentary I guess 3DR have a lot to say...
I think collector's edition for $100 could handle this.
(This is the way to go - earn zounds of dollars on world most famous wapourware ever :) )

This post has been edited by Honza7: 29 June 2010 - 05:25 PM

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#29

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User is offline   Mikko 

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#30

View PostHonza7, on Jun 30 2010, 04:23 AM, said:

If there is one happy day when DNF sees light of the day. I DO WANT documentation, whole story about all of this, I wanna play all those layed off betas based on Q2 and Unreal engine. I do want to know what was going on over the years and it's best if possible with commentary I guess 3DR have a lot to say...


I'd pay more for a book on the development process than I'd pay for the game.

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