ShXIII, on Jun 9 2009, 08:47 AM, said:
I never said I wasn't curious what i said was I'm not a deranged fan boy
Neither am I, but I still don't think the project is completely dead, there are still a few ways this can play out, so I'm going to wait and see. The basic possibilities I see are as follows:
1) Game doesn't release
2) Take-Two wins in 2 years and releases the game as-is (as I've stated before, games are built breadth-wise, so even if it's incomplete and buggy, it is probably still clockable at this point and I think this is all they will want - assuming they even care, they might just try and get their 12 million back and be done with DNF). I can't see them spending more on DNF so if they can't release it as-is, I don't think they'll bother, and even if they did, after 2 years of no development picking the project up again is unrealistic.
3) George/Scott passes it to one of the developers of the Radar group along with a few people that know a lot about the game's tech and how to make content for it (this one is quite likely in my opinion assuming the legal battle doesn't freeze development over the next 2 years)
4) George and the remains of 3DR slowly polishes sections of the game at this point and does electronic episode-style releases, after one release they'll be back on their feet
5) Take-Two and 3D Realms settle out of court (this is likely as well and will get the game back into development, although I expect delays since they won't be able to get all of the good guys they had before)
6) Someone chooses to purchase the publishing rights from Take-Two and funds the rest of development (not likely, but not impossible, Microsoft for one would definitely throw money at this one if they can secure it as an XBOX360 exclusive, and no, they won't care if that means the controls suck).
7) Scott decides to pour a bit more into its development. I can't see it being a lot, but enough to get the game shippable
8) Some sort of fund-raiser, like a prologue that costs $5-$10 or something, *SPOILER* like the segment at the beginning where Duke plays Duke3D in his mansion, there is no reason that has to be part of the main duke game, it could be sold separately as a prologue and people will buy it...
I'm sure there are many other possibilities as well. My point is, if it was cancelled they would have clearly stated that, right now, nothing is certain and I think it coming out is just as likely as it not coming out. Or rather, that is what I'd like to say, unfortunately Take-Two is seriously fucking things up right now... if they manage to get the 2 year development freeze approved, then yes, I will say 99% chance the game is dead. If Take-Two doesn't manage to prevent the game from being completed, I think 50/50 are good odds right now.
And no, Take-Two doesn't intend to finish the game, if they win the lawsuit and the game is not in any way shippable, it will not see the light of day. If they wanted it complete, they wouldn't be requesting a development freeze for the next 2 odd years while this legal battle rages on. Think about it, what's the point right? They don't have the resources to work on it, so the freeze seems pointless... But lets say they pull through and get it done, you'd think Take-Two would be happy as the game would get released, right? Well, why freeze development then? Even if they can't complete it, if 3DR just finishes 2% of the game, that is 2% less Take-Two would have to do to get the game on store shelves. To put it bluntly, Take-Two doesn't want the game completed. If it's completed, they have to pay 3DR 4.5 million which they don't want to do, and no, they don't care about you and do not plan to release it out of the goodness of their hearts. If Take-Two wins, you better hope the game is shippable, or it is as good as dead. If 3DR wins, I think there is a good chance it will be passed to another developer along with recommendations on who to hire to help finish the game. Also, if 3DR is not prevented from working on the title by Take-Two, they will keep at least one or two people around working on the tech so someone exists that can readily pick up the game and teach a new team how to work with the tech... If Take-Two succeeds with the development freeze, no one might be around that can actually finish the game. Take-Two is clearly trying to prevent the game from seeing the light of day.
So that's my two cents, realistically, I think the chances of it being released is 25%, I would say 50%, but I think everything depends on the development freeze going ahead or not.